In the field now, decided to chase today. Targeting south central Minnesota and an MD just came out. Heading down to Owatonna now.
Mesoscale Discussion 1646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019 Areas affected...parts of central and northern Wisconsin...southern Minnesota...and adjacent northern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051818Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential is forecast to gradually increase across the discussion area, on the southern fringe of ongoing convection. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of thunderstorms moving east across western Upper Michigan and northern Wisconsin, while additional storms are increasing in coverage along the southern fringe of the ongoing band -- and westward along remnant outflow over southern Minnesota. The airmass ahead of the storms/convective outflow continues to heat/destabilize, with objective analysis showing 2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE -- in line with the 17Z special RAOB from MPX. Latest VWPs, and the MPX RAOB, show low-level southerly/ southwesterly flow veering to northwesterly aloft, and increasing 40-plus knots at mid levels. Resulting shear is supportive of organized/long-lived storms, and is contributing to an intense/long-lived updraft which moved through the Minneapolis metro area and has produced hail to tennis-ball size. As storms continue to increase -- and likely organize eventually into a south/southeastward-moving MCS, risk for severe weather will likewise ramp up. As such, WW issuance will become increasingly likely over the next hour or so. ..Goss/Dial.. 08/05/2019