Home page for Douglas Kiesling
Doug Kiesling – Weather Paparazzi
Up north right now and just finished up a late season chase with Neva to show her how to photograph lightning.
We had a perfect setup with the line moving over the north half of the area and over the lake with a boat waiting to come into the harbor. We also got some shots over the harbor back towards the antenna farm.
Here are some of the images we got over looking the lake.
Today and tomorrow look’s like one of those rare fall chase days in Minnesota. No I’m not heading out looking for Tornadoes but I’m looking for lightning and fall colors.
SPC has the northern half of Minnesota in a slight risk today and with the fall colors sit to hit peak this weekend, this could be a decent photo op.
In other news, Tropical Storm Kyle is now in play and forecasted to become a hurricane before making landfall in Canada this weekend as a Tropical Storm. It is once again the forecast track that has me worried about trying to intercept a storm that may just go out to see or hit in the middle of an area that you can’t get next to the coast for a daylight landfall.
Been busy for the last few days working on stuff for the new website and new show. Mostly reviewing code for the new site while fielding phone calls to help find additional stock footage, reviewing footage and today it was several hours of audio work and working on the mic. A lot of friends are really bugging me to tell them what happens on the show but no can do. Only the editors, producers and chasers really know what is going to happen. All I can say is that it’s going to be hella cool. It’s the Storm Chasing version of Deadliest Catch and produced by the same people that made Deadliest Catch and Ice Road Truckers. My field producer was one of the Ice Road Trucker Field Producers so you know the show is going to rock!
I can’t talk about it people so stop asking. Just watch this site for updates in the coming weeks.
It’s Not Must See TV, “It’s MESO TV”!!!
In other news, yes, working on the new site here and it will launch right before the show. Also busy working on a bunch of other video projects as well with one of them being a tornado DVD project that is should launch before the show as well as a bunch of video projects to do in the next few weeks. That’s on top of the stock video stuff. If this keeps up, I’m going to need to start thinking about hiring some staff to help out.
Well, I got to get back to working on a video edit project that needs to get out to a client. Just updating the blog while the footage renders on the edit bay computer. I’ll post more later.
Well today was fun because I took the weekend off from the computer for the most part with the exception of just checking the weather. The plan was to go up north for the fall colors but we got word that the colors would be better next weekend and just changed the trip for them.
We did go to the Quarry Park and Nature Preserve here in St. Cloud this afternoon to explore the area. Neva has been there many times but this was my first time there. What a cool place to go have fun on the weekends or during the week. They even have a few places to Scuba Dive so I’m already planning some dives this week if the weather holds out.
There are a lot of photos in the photo gallery but this one that I just uploaded made my day. Since moving out of Murderapolis (Minneapolis) I have been growing to love the slower pace of living in St. Cloud. The traffic is better, the air is cleaner, I’m still an hour away from the cities and we have Red Neck Graffiti vs. the Gangsta cRap Graffiti.
As much as think that I have seen some pretty crazy stuff in my time, nothing tops that latest stuff thing I saw the other day.
No, nothing about storm chasing, it is just proof that there are just some whacked out messed up people in this world no matter where you go or where you end up, there are always some people that have issues.
I would have expected to see this in Hollywood or maybe in Miami or Orlando but in St. Cloud Minnesota, WTF.
On the corner of 25th Avenue and Division Street in the heart of St. Cloud sits, Superman.
I heard that they killed him off in the comics but I guess he must have entered Super Hero Retirement and moved to St. Cloud MN.
No joke, there is a guy that dress’s up in a superman outfit and sits on the corner of 25th Avenue and Division Street (highway 23) and pretends he is Freaking Superman.
At first I thought it was someone just messing around but Neva told me that this dude just hangs out there in front of the DQ just to watch over the city.
Still think I’m kiding? I did a google search “St. Cloud Superman” and there are a ton of sites about the guy that has been doing this for years according to the MPR story about him in this link.
http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/200111/19_horwichj_upandaway-m/
Now onto the real drama. Ok not real drama but looking at the GFDL and the CMC forecast models, there may be a new system in the tropics next week. Still too early to tell what this system is going to do.
Well, it’s almost 5am, time to go wake up Neva. She has class for work down in the cities again this morning so she wants to beat traffic and leave early. Yeah I was up all night again. Been working out at Golds Gym now to get back into shape in case I have to do more stuff in front of the camera.
Ok, Ike came in as a Cat 2 and overnight and not much to report from anyone and not much if any amazing footage that came from the storm. The worst of it did come into High Island where I thought it would come in the day before it made landfall.
The media was over kill on this storm and it turned out t be a bust for them. They said it was going to be the end of the world and then had to make it come true instead of looking like asses. So yes there was storm surge and there was some loss of life but it was a hurricane, that is to be expected from the people that are too stupid to leave the area when they put out the hurricane warnings days in advance. Before anyone rips on me, they had a ton of free bus transports and free shelters to ride out the storm well in advance of the storm.
Now in other news. I have been told that due to someone washing clothes in hot water vs. cold or warm, I have been banned from doing someone’s laundry.
I guess someone thought they were starting to put on weight when someone else washed their stuff in hot water a while back and her stuff shrank from size zero to size nadda.
Sorry, My Bad.
Called off the Ike chase at the last minute yesterday and now I am pretty glad I did after looking at the latest data and IR Loop. Still no eye on the storm showing up on Sat and the center or what should be the eye still only about 10 miles across just gave me a bad feeling about chasing this storm.
Not a bad feeling like lot’s of bad stuff will happen but bad as in the storm looked as if it would never reach that major hurricane status that was forecasted to be just 24 hours ago (2am 09/11 cst).
One other thing to note after looking over all the models and reading all the different forecasts and just using my gut forecast, I have a feeling that the center of Ike will pass just to the east of Houston. That might spare the storm surge some what and put the worst of the storm on High Island during the overnight hours.
The main thing that really bugged me about the go or no go to chase Ike was the time of landfall which is going to be during the overnight hours and the fact that the winds never really got above 100mph after it got off of Cuba.
So for those that want to compare Ike vs Katrina, here are a couple Sat images with the storms in almost the same part of the Gulf the day before making landfall.
The first one is Hurricane Katrina the day before making landfall on August 28, 2005. The Max Sustained Winds with Katrina at this point were 165-175 Miles Per Hour (see 10am and 4pm nhc forecasts since someone will nit pick about facts I post… http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml )
Now this one is from just before sunset tonight 9/11/2005 of Hurricane Ike.
Ike might be as big as Katrina, Ike might be kicking up some storm surge like all tropical systems do, but Ike is not and never will be like Katrina which was up to Super Insane (my term) Hurricane status of 175mph sustained winds the day before making landfall.
The day before Ike is to make land fall, I look at the Satellite image and want to rename the storm to “Hurricane Cinnabon”.
The wind field on this thing keeps reminding me of a Nor’Easter where the center of the storm is lame but the winds extend way the hell out from the center. Those who live east of the Galveston area should be concerned but not sure about the eye wall.
Yes the hurricane Ike intercept is still on hold. What? Why have I not booked a flight and filed a claim for my piece of the Hurricane Ike gold mine.
Well, simple, there is one small problem and that is that hurricane Ike is small and heading for an area south of Houston that is rural at best with no real access to the coast. The storm is still small and trying to reform and people are trying to compare it to Katrina. Also, no real safe place to intercept and it will probably be coming in at night. Not much to see with Hurricanes at night.
Well, let’s compare it to Katrina. In the image below we have the classic hurricane satellite photo on the left which is Hurricane Katrina from 2005 and now Hurricane Ike from today. Look at the size of Katrina based off the tip of the gulf coast of Mexico vs the size of Ike.
Now lets look at the fact that Katrina had a Monster sized well defined eye on her and Ike, well, it has something but it’s not very well defined. Katrina had the classic Buzz Saw look to her where as Ike, um not yet up to Katrina like form or strength.
Don’t get me wrong, I have several flight options and I’ll be out the door asap and on a flight if the storm looks better in the morning but right now it is not saying WOW to me.
The big question is, where is the eye? If you look at the Katrina image above and the Ike Image, where is Ike’s Eye?
Now lets look at the forecasts. Yesterday the storm was forecasted to be making landfall around the Brownsville area along the USA and Mexico boarder. Now the latest GFDL forecast shows it could hit Houston. The forward speed of the storm has slowed down now to seven miles per hour from eight and the storm has not gone above 100 miles per hour. Below is the 7pm NHC forecast which shows the storm making a dreaded night landfall in the middle of pretty much rural areas of the Texas Coast.
And here is the 11pm forecast from NHC that show’s it is still 100 miles per hour and still moving in the same northwest direction but now there is a twist. The twist is that it could now get caught by the system coming out of the Midwest and turn to the north and hit southwest of Houston TX during the overnight hours on Friday and Saturday and that is a problem.
The problem is, will it make the last minute turn to the north between 7pm and 7am on Friday? Will Ike slow down more to make it a daytime landfall on Saturday and will Ike make it further north to hit along coast where you can’t get within 20 miles of the coastline with a tiny eye of a hurricane to try and intercept.
Too many thing’s telling me not to go because the number one factor is that if it hit’s at night, you won’t be able to see anything to shoot video of and that means I wont be able to get video of anything that is worth selling.
The trip is still up in the air so I may take off in the next 24 hours to chase Ike but too many things tell me to wait it out at home.
Plus, I have a ton of work to do here for clients so with my stringers going out their to chase the storm, BNVN will still have people out their to cover it, I just fear their may not be anything to cover. Time to get some sleep and see what is happening in the morning with Ike.
Okay, it is 130 in the morning. I should be in bed but I’m not because I’m looking at booking travel plans and forecasts for Hurricane Ike which just earlier today was considered a bust since it was suppose to go to Mexico… Um yeah. Well Ike departed Cuba but now the forward speed has dropped big time.
What does this mean? Well the forward speed was what I thought was going to make Ike travel faster and into the west and avoid the front moving down from the Midwest that was going to pick it up. Now Ike is moving west north west at 7 miles per hour which is at least half the speed it was moving at in the previous several days.
So, now the computer models and forecasts are all being tossed up into the air with no real point of landfall for Ike yet other then somewhere along the Texas Gulf Coast during the overnight on Friday and Saturday.
Which brings up the next problem. The storm is going to hit during the overnight hour’s per NHC and per several computer models and hit in a place where there is not much to hit around Palacios Texas. So do I book up a flight, hotel and rental car and head down to Texas only to get into an area that will see the worst of the storm during the overnight hours where I won’t see much of anything in the first place, or do I stay home and work on several client orders for footage of stuff I already have?
The question is, do I try for the money shot in Texas with a high chance of it being a bust and a ton of Yahoo chaser’s from OK and TX showing up to make it even more of a pain in the ass or do I stay home and work on projects that I know will pay the bills? Oh well, at least there is 6 more good weeks of hurricane chasing where there could be better storms. I just don’t feel like chasing a hurricane in the middle of a cattle ranch.