Author: Doug

Wow, just looking over the latest data for Tropical Storm Dolly and if the forecast track keeps to where I think it was going to go this morning (Monday) then I will be uber forecasting. 

Here is the 10 PM forecast graphic from the National Hurricane Center.

I have been watching the storm on Vis and Shortwave Sat today and watching it move to the west at around 16-18 (17) miles per hour and stay only at a 50 miles per hour tropical storm force.

Here is my forecast, if Tropical Storm Dolly keeps it’s due west track, it’s going to be a major bust for anyone chasing the storm.  With no real jump in the center of circulation wind speed and a fast ground track, Tropical Storm Dolly is going to be making landfall a lot faster then expected and in Mexico.    However, Dolly is expected to slow it’s forward speed and build during the overnight according to some of the computer models but I just don’t trust them. 

My Gut Forecast says, Mexico.  It’s still July and there is still several months of hurricane season left.  Were not even in the prime which comes in September.  I can wait for a better setup and use Dolly to refine my forecasting skills on the latest computer model updates for this season.

The tropics are going nuts this week.  With Tropical Storm Christobal off the North Carolina coast that is doing pretty much nothing but kicking up some large surf, to now Tropical Storm Dolly that just passed over the Cancun area of Mexico and now heading into the Gulf of Mexico where it may turn into a cat one or cat two hurricane.

My Thoughts.  Why, I’m trying to move this week up to St. Cloud and why does this have to happen this week?  Fucking Murpheys Law…

Next Thought, not saying anything bad about Mexico but if the storm hits Mexico, nobody in the press will care that much.  How many shows have been produced about Hurricane Dean that hit Mexico back in 2007 or Hurricane Wilma back in 2005.  Pretty much nothing except for a few B-Roll clips but for the most part it was nadda.

Now if Tropical Storm Dolly turns into hurricane Dolly and hits the US Coast, well then we may have a story.  

The first problems with Dolly is timing.  Is Dolly going to come in during the day or night.  The latest forecast tracks show that Dolly will more then likely be a night storm which means you can’t really see anything for video.

Next is where it is suppose to hit on the latest 10AM NHC Forecast Track.

The forecast track for Dolly is in the evening hours of Wednesday, that is just 2 days from now with it moving west north west at 18 miles per hour.  This storm will be over in a blink of an eye when it hits land at that speed.

And now the other major issue with chasing Dolly.  Where it is going to hit.  The middle of a Ranch in Texas.

View Larger Map

What, the middle of the ranch?  Yes, the middle of nowhere in Texas is where the latest forecast is taking this storm.  Look it up and you will see that from Brownsville Texas to Corpus Christi Texas there is nothing for the storm to hit.  There is no coastal road to travel on to refine the position like in Florida or along the upper gulf coast.  Matter of fact the only real road is Highway 77 that is over 15 miles away from the coast line.  One could take road which will be locked down to South Padre Island or Port Mansfield but I doubt anyone will be able to get into those areas.

This looks like the perfect storm to hit the United States as it will hurt more Cattle then anything else along the coast line.  Now the flooding that comes from this storm, that could be a whole different problem. 

Right now, I am on standby to head to Texas tomorrow but it now is looking more like I will be staying put for the next 24 hours.

To start out with, I have been chasing like crazy here to the point were Neva has been wondering when I am going to finish moving.  I was up by Canada the other day and then chasing in Northern Iowa the next day.  The storms up north of Grand Forks were pretty sweet but damn it is a Fn haul to get up there.  It’s like driving from Minneapolis, MN to Kansas City, MO, it will take a while.  But it was worth it.  I just wish I would have got up their sooner.  The area is still way up north but when there is nothing else happening, it was worth the experience chasing tornadic storms why up north.

Okay, now onto other news about the chaser community.  I really did not want to touch this one with a 100 foot pole but I will address it here and now.

A couple week’s ago, a tornado was reported in Valentine Nebraska.  Video of what was thought to be the tornado was fed out to all the news media of the event.  And then all the other chasers saw it on viral video feeds and the network feeds and AP online feed.

Then that is when a few of us started saying wow, that sure is a cool looking speed up video feed to make it look faster.  But wait, that looks like the Rock Kansas tornado from June 12, 2004 which was same day as the Mulvane Kansas tornado day that must have been documented by several hundred chasers. 

Here is what KSTP, the station I freelance for in Minneapolis, this is what they had on their website.

http://kstp.com/article/stories/S506179.shtml
Created on: 07/11/2008 01:45:50 AM
By DAVID BAUDER
Tornado videographer denies doctoring footage
(AP) NEW YORK – A storm chaser accused of doctoring old tornado video and selling it under the pretense that it was taken last week in Nebraska denied wrongdoing Thursday, suggesting that professional jealousy was behind the allegation.

The Associated Press and video services operated by CBS, NBC and Fox pulled the video late Tuesday after determining that there was enough evidence to question its authenticity.

Andy Fabel agreed to sell the footage for $295 to The Associated Press, and also made it available to the other news organizations. The AP has purchased tornado video from Fabel on three previous occasions.

A fellow storm chaser, Dan Robinson of Appalachian Skies Media, contacted the AP to say he believed Fabel’s video was a doctored version of images taken of another twister that touched down four years ago in Rock, Kansas.

Fabel told the AP on Thursday that he legitimately filmed the Nebraska storm. He said fellow storm chasers are “jealous of you if you got a tornado that they wanted. They’ll pack it up and try to crucify you. “Robinson said the image was “flipped” to make it seem the tornado was pointed in another direction, and the action sped up.

The supposed Nebraska footage includes power lines not seen in the Kansas storm; it also is minus trees shown in the Kansas images. Robinson said he was familiar with the Kansas storm because he, too, had filmed it from a similar angle. He said at least four other storm chasers who had witnessed the Kansas storm agreed on an Internet forum that the video was from Kansas.

The AP had sent Fabel’s video Sunday to nearly 2,000 Web sites that subscribe to the company’s Online Video Network, and more than 60 large digital customers that buy AP’s online content individually. Upon seeing the evidence, the AP eliminated the video from OVN and contacted its other customers to urge them not to use it, said Kevin Roach, the AP’s acting head of domestic broadcast news operations.
“We never want to mislead people,” Roach said. “Based on evidence provided to us, we believe that the video was not authentic. “Roach said the AP looked at the two video streams side-by-side, and examined individual frames of the footage in making its determination. He also asked for opinions from a photo editor and third storm chaser, Roach said. “It was rather definitive for us,” he said.

The NBC, CBS and Fox services provide video to the networks’ affiliates. They had agreed to buy Fabel’s video and distributed it, then took it off their servers on Tuesday after suspicions were raised, representatives for the networks said.”There was enough evidence for us to make it suspect, ” said Sharon Houston, an executive producer with NBC News Channel. John Stack, vice president of news gathering for Fox News Channel, said Fabel has been one of the top storm chasers relied upon by media for tornado pictures. Now he said Fabel’s work is suspect. “The concern is whether he’s an actual news gatherer or Cecil B. DeMille,” Stack said.

(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

And then there is this one from the Chicago Tribune.

It has the frame grabs from the two videos to prove it was a fake. 

This was a bad thing to do and to ruin everything and hurt the industry for $295?  What an idiot.

Chased up north today with Neva and got screwed by the trees.  We were on several great storms but lost them in the trees and then on one of the better storms that had a tornado warning on it, and was heading towards Brainerd MN, we were totally on it and then we were totally blocked by Camp Ripley.  Ugh, I remember why I never chase up north of St. Cloud and north of I94. You can’t see anything except for forests.

We headed south and chased down highway 10 towards Anoka when Neva got this shot. Here is the point and shoot photo that Neva took as we were driving through Elk River on the south side of town.

grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr  ugh, I have been trying for a decade to get a shot of lightning and a rainbow together and she just points the little Canon Powershot out the window and said “That was pretty easy”.

I woke up today to the National Weather Service weather radio screaming with an alarm of severe thunder storm watch for my area.   I checked the web and thought maybe I should go out to chase but after looking at the data, I thought to myself that I needed to stay put and stay home.

I was right because I was able to film some hurricane force wind gusts just off my bedroom deck.  Below is the video that I shot of the storm and the damage around Burnsville.

Wow, it seems kind of strange but I’m back home in Burnsville tonight, er this morning.  I’m getting caught up on all the paperwork from the last two months that has been stacking up here at home.  And now I get to take care of it and then get everything ready for the big move to St. Cloud at the end of the month. 

I looked at another chasers blog and it looks like the whole chase scene knows that I’m on a TV show now. How they found out, well, don’t know, don’t really care because it is obvious that their are no secrets in storm chasing since it is a gossip fest. They know I’m in the show but the cool part is that only the crew and I know what really happened. I made sure I have given a lot of bullshit answers to everyone that has been asking me what happened. Hell I think there is a rumor out there that I got struck by lightning or smashed the truck into a tree or even rolled it down a ditch. What really happened? Tune in and watch!

Ok what else is up. Now that I’m back home for a few weeks to take care of my business before Hurricane Season goes into full blown action, I’m going to try and get the websites caught up.

On the chasing scene, I was chasing last night and yesterday. I followed the storms from St. Cloud to Northfield MN and shot some sweet lightning footage. The footage is listed below.

And on the personal side of things. Neva and I went up north to her family small town cabin area on Lake Osakis.

Well, that is pretty much it for now.  Been hella busy working on the show and working on other projects for BNVN so no time to update over the last month but I will be updating the blog when I can.

Until the next update.

After a month on the road, stopping home for a mater of minutes just to check the mail and wash clothes then head back on the road again, I’m happy to say, I’m coming home, or I’m going home folks to spend some time at home for once.

I wrapped up the first part of a huge gig a week ago and then had to drive all night home only to get a few hours of sleep and clean up and pack and head back out to the scuba trip with Brian that has been in the works for almost a year.  The scuba trip was great and I got in 13 dives with the deepest being on the Baja wreck at 110 feet.  Yes the PO2 alarm was going off on my dive computer at 1.4 PO2 and I thought about pushing it a few more feet to get to the bottom of the wreck.

Now, I’m just chilling out in Fort Myers for the night and going to do some more laundry on the road at the hotel and then get some sleep. 

Before I forget, here is some photos from the dive trip with the new under water HD setup. A few cool shots and one of Brian working the camera. 

Here is this dude we picked up in South Park Colorado. His name is Johnny and he was in a Fitz… He was asking for change so we gave him a ride…

Life on THE ROAD is rough, it’s not really a homeless dude but one of the guys I’m chasing with who is just beat from all the travel.

Just an FYI, I’m still out chasing but can’t say much other than some know whats up.  Here is a shot from The Road…

Just a quick update from home for once.  I’m home for a few days then I’m going back out to chase again after I rest up and clean up.

Yesterday we got on the tornado that hit the southwest side of Omaha during the over night hours.  We saw the power flashes just off to the south of us and then got hit with the RFD as we chased after the rain wrapped tornado at night.  It was pretty intense to say the lease but we were seeing more then most chasers.  After the storm passed, I went and documented the damage area.   It looked like a small but intense tornado. 

Ok, been pulling 4 hours of sleep for the last week and I now have 2 days off and I’m going to enjoy them sleeping.